I spent an hour on the phone last week with one of the industry’s top futures specialist from a leading firm. Since we have clients that do work with them and I have known her for 15 years we talked about the oil market at length. Her view based upon their charts and continued Eurozone economic issues is that the market had support to go below $74.95 in the next coming weeks.
Yes, strange as it always is since we have talked crude oil prices have gone up a few dollars a barrel. This looks like the fact that traders didn’t want to be short over the holiday and there is a lot of things swirling out there right now.
Since diesel fuel prices follow crude oil, a good time to lock prices could be in early August. We also talked about the what if’s of the world. Her comments were you never know. I never expect to walk into work and hear about things like 9/11, hurricanes, wars and all of the other things that upset the oil market. You can only go by the facts that you have at the time.
I also saw a friend of mine Tom Kloza, Chief Oil Analyst of Oil Price Information Service (OPIS) on CNBC last week talking about crude oil and gas prices. His view was the crude oil market had another 5-7% left to give back but we weren’t going to see prices down in the low $60’s or anything like that. He also felt from a gasoline side of things that by the 4th quarter most places in the country will be paying around $2.70 a gallon.
As days change fuel prices change. As with everything else in life, nothing stays the same.